Millonarios 3-2 Junior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.74
Over 2.5
38%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
54%
+8.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
46%
-8.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.6pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millonarios EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Junior EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -21%
1.24/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.23
-11% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -5%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
377 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 73%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
20.5 Crosses 13.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millonarios
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Junior
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.99 xG 0.82
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
318 Passes 361
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
25.01.2024 Millonarios Millonarios 2-0 HT 0-0 Junior Junior KOLSK
19.01.2024 Junior Junior 1-0 HT 0-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOLSK
15.10.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 1-0 HT 1-0 Junior Junior KOL
01.05.2023 Junior Junior 1-0 HT 1-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
28.11.2022 Millonarios Millonarios 1-0 HT 0-0 Junior Junior KOL
10.11.2022 Junior Junior 0-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millonarios
3-2
AWAY Junior
1.92 xG 1.14
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
225 Passes 384
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Millonarios vs Junior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millonarios nicked a narrow win over Junior 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Millonarios as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Millonarios had 39% of the ball to Junior's 61%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 1.92 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millonarios had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Millonarios and 0.33 for Junior.

What was the final score of Millonarios vs Junior?

Millonarios 3-2 Junior in the Colombia - Primera on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millonarios vs Junior?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millonarios win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Millonarios 47%, draw 28%, Junior 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Millonarios) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Millonarios) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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