Atletico Nacional 0-1 Deportivo Pereira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.89
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-9.1pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.1pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.0pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.7pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pereira EU Bookmakers 27%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
1.24/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.14
+10% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
312 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 75%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
18.5 Crosses 12.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Pereira
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.92 xG 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
354 Passes 258
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.11.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira KOLK
20.10.2023 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
04.09.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira KOL
18.03.2023 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
17.02.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-3 HT 0-2 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira KOLSK
09.02.2023 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLSK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
0-1
AWAY Deportivo Pereira
0.44 xG 0.82
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 0
336 Passes 282
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
9 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Pereira edged past Atletico Nacional 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Deportivo Pereira found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 53% of the ball to Deportivo Pereira's 47%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.44 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.00 for Deportivo Pereira.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira?

Atletico Nacional 0-1 Deportivo Pereira in the Colombia - Primera on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 40%, draw 30%, Deportivo Pereira 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Atletico Nacional) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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