Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 Cimarrones de Sonora — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
21%
3.28
Away
46%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
31%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
25%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.6pp
21%
Draw
27%
-6.4pp
46%
Away Win
39%
+7.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.7pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Cimarrones de Sonora EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.63/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/0.87
+30% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +30%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
294 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cimarrones de Sonora
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
24.01.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-2 HT 0-1 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora MEK2
24.08.2023 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 4-2 HT 2-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
29.03.2023 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 0-1 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
23.07.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 HT 1-0 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora MEK2
17.02.2022 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 0-1 HT 0-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
04.08.2021 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-1 HT 0-1 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora MEK2
POST-MATCH Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cimarrones de Sonora
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Cimarrones de Sonora shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Cimarrones de Sonora at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.33 for Cimarrones de Sonora.

What was the final score of Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cimarrones de Sonora?

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 Cimarrones de Sonora in the Mexico - Primera A on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cimarrones de Sonora?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cimarrones de Sonora win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Alebrijes de Oaxaca 33%, draw 21%, Cimarrones de Sonora 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cimarrones de Sonora), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cimarrones de Sonora) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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