Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.6
Over
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.61
2-3
41%
1.82
4-5
19%
4.73
6+
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.31
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
9%
5.01
X/2
9%
6.66
X/X
16%
3.9
2/1
11%
31.0
2/2
15%
5.17
2/X
5%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.6pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.9pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.1pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.30/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.46
-22% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
319 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
27.0 Crosses 17.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bahia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.36 xG 1.52
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
329 Passes 364
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
23.06.2024 Bahia Bahia 4-1 HT 1-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
26.10.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
11.06.2023 Bahia Bahia 2-2 HT 1-2 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
23.07.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR2
09.04.2022 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
3-0
AWAY Bahia
2.35 xG 0.26
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
270 Passes 433
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 15
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro swept aside Bahia 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cruzeiro as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 39% of the ball to Bahia's 61%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 2.35 to 0.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.50 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 42%, draw 27%, Bahia 30%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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