Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 19 Oct 2024

Cruzeiro
1-1 HT 0-0
Bahia
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Cruzeiro vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.8
Over 2.5
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.13
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 32% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.62
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.75
X/1
16%
4.3
X/2
7%
7.66
X/X
15%
4.58
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
15%
5.87
2/X
7%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.3pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cruzeiro v Bahia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +0%
1.45/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.41
-3% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -29%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
352 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
24.2 Crosses 16.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Cruzeiro vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bahia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.43 xG 1.54
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
346 Passes 339
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.06.2024 Bahia Bahia 4-1 HT 1-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
26.10.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
11.06.2023 Bahia Bahia 2-2 HT 1-2 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
23.07.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR2
09.04.2022 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
04.11.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1

Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
1-1
AWAY Bahia
1.23 xG 1.29
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
337 Passes 357
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro and Bahia couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Cruzeiro at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 49% of the ball to Bahia's 51%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.23 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.50 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 44%, draw 27%, Bahia 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cruzeiro), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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