AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Plymouth Argyle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 18 Apr 2026

AFC Wimbledon
1-3 HT 0-1
Plymouth Argyle
📅18/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✓
England - 1st Division – 2025/2026

AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth Argyle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.29
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
52%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
25%
3.0
6+ Goals
11%
9.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.41
1/2
12%
22.65
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
5%
7.62
X/2 EV+ ✗
27%
4.75
X/X
10%
5.09
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
13%
2.61
2/X
6%
12.7
Value flag · X/2 at 4.75 — our 27% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
27%
-1.4pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.6pp
52%
Away Win
48%
+4.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.3pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AFC Wimbledon v Plymouth Argyle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 52%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.09/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.28
+3% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +16%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
222 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 78%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
18.3 Crosses 23.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7

AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth Argyle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.38 xG 1.45
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
266 Passes 336
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.10.2025 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-2 HT 1-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
21.12.2022 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 3-3 HT 0-3 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İNTK
08.03.2022 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 2-0 HT 1-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
18.09.2021 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-1 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İN1
02.04.2021 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-0 HT 1-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
19.09.2020 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 4-4 HT 1-2 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İN1

AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Plymouth Argyle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1-3
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
1.48 xG 3.29
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 7
218 Passes 176
65% Pass Accuracy 61%
14 Box Touches 34
22 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth Argyle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Plymouth Argyle saw off AFC Wimbledon 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Plymouth Argyle as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 54% of the ball to Plymouth Argyle's 46%, shots finished 16-22, expected goals 1.48 to 3.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Plymouth Argyle led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 2.00 for Plymouth Argyle.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth Argyle?

AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Plymouth Argyle in the England - 1st Division on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth Argyle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Plymouth Argyle win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 25%, draw 23%, Plymouth Argyle 52%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Plymouth Argyle), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Plymouth Argyle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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