Thun 3-1 Basel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 18 Apr 2026

Thun
3-1 HT 1-0
Basel
📅18/04/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2025/2026

Thun vs Basel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.8
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
2.61
Over 2.5
66%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.43
No
38%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.79
2-3 Goals
36%
2.03
4-5 Goals
30%
2.49
6+ Goals
16%
5.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.3
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
13%
4.87
X/2
8%
8.59
X/X
7%
6.41
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.05
2/2
12%
5.48
2/X
6%
13.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.05 — our 10% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
52%
+1.7pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.3pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.6pp
34%
Under 2.5
35%
-0.4pp
66%
Over 2.5
65%
+0.4pp
62%
BTTS Yes
66%
-3.4pp
38%
BTTS No
34%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Thun v Basel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Thun EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Basel EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -14%
2.12/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.72
+19% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
31.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
21.4 Crosses 16.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Thun vs Basel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Thun
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Basel
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.33 xG 2.12
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
325 Passes 355
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.02.2026 Basel Basel 1-2 HT 0-1 Thun Thun İSV
13.09.2025 Thun Thun 1-3 HT 0-2 Basel Basel İSV
31.07.2020 Thun Thun 0-0 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
15.02.2020 Basel Basel 0-1 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV
19.10.2019 Basel Basel 3-1 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV
03.08.2019 Thun Thun 2-3 HT 1-1 Basel Basel İSV

Thun 3-1 Basel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Thun
3-1
AWAY Basel
1.33 xG 1.24
41% Ball Possession 59%
17 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
218 Passes 337
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Thun vs Basel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thun saw off Basel 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Thun as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Thun had 41% of the ball to Basel's 59%, shots finished 17-17, expected goals 1.33 to 1.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Basel led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Thun and 1.67 for Basel.

What was the final score of Thun vs Basel?

Thun 3-1 Basel in the Switzerland - Super League on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Thun vs Basel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Thun 53%, draw 20%, Basel 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Thun), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Thun) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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