Sebail FK 0-3 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 18 May 2024

Sebail FK
0-3 HT 0-0
Neftçi PFK
📅18/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2025/2026

Sebail FK vs Neftçi PFK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.75
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
51%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.1
Over 2.5
62%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.68
No
41%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
34%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
9%
X/2
27%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
23%
+6.2pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.2pp
51%
Away Win
54%
-2.9pp
38%
Under 2.5
44%
-6.1pp
62%
Over 2.5
56%
+6.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
56%
+3.4pp
41%
BTTS No
44%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sebail FK v Neftçi PFK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 57%
+6% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.28/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.15
+14% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -32%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
318 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Sebail FK vs Neftçi PFK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sebail FK
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.03.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-0 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
20.10.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 2-4 HT 1-2 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
14.08.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 0-1 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
22.04.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 1-1 HT 1-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
18.02.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-0 HT 1-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
27.11.2022 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-1 HT 1-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
POST-MATCH Sebail FK vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK cruised past Sebail FK 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Neftçi PFK as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (62%) landed while both teams to score (59%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sebail FK and 2.50 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Sebail FK vs Neftçi PFK?

Sebail FK 0-3 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sebail FK vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Sebail FK 30%, draw 20%, Neftçi PFK 51%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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