TPS Turku 1-4 KTP Kotka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykkönen, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.12
2-3 Goals
44%
1.85
4-5 Goals
19%
3.06
6+ Goals
10%
9.69
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.12 — our 27% vs market 19.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-2.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.3pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 37%
-10% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.19/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.16/1.42
-23% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TPS Turku
1W-4D-1L
AWAY KTP Kotka
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2022 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-1 HT 0-1 TPS Turku TPS Turku FINY
04.07.2022 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-3 HT 1-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
28.04.2022 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-0 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
14.11.2020 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-1 HT 0-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
11.11.2020 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-0 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
07.10.2019 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-1 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME TPS Turku
1-4
AWAY KTP Kotka
31% Ball Possession 69%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH TPS Turku vs KTP Kotka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KTP Kotka ran out comfortable winners over TPS Turku 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was TPS Turku at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, TPS Turku had 31% of the ball to KTP Kotka's 69%, shots finished 10-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for TPS Turku and 0.83 for KTP Kotka.

What was the final score of TPS Turku vs KTP Kotka?

TPS Turku 1-4 KTP Kotka in the Finland - Ykkönen on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TPS Turku vs KTP Kotka?

Before kick-off our model rated a TPS Turku win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split TPS Turku 42%, draw 27%, KTP Kotka 31%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (TPS Turku), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (TPS Turku) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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