Olimpia Grudziadz 0-1 Kalisz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 2nd Division, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.08
6+ Goals
9%
19.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 31% vs market 29.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-5.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+6.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.3pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Olimpia Grudziadz EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Kalisz EU Bookmakers 30%
-11% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +14%
1.26/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.18
-19% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +29%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
364 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Olimpia Grudziadz
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Kalisz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 Kalisz Kalisz 2-2 HT 2-2 Olimpia Grudziadz Olimpia Grudziadz POL2
29.05.2021 Kalisz Kalisz 2-1 HT 1-1 Olimpia Grudziadz Olimpia Grudziadz POL2
06.12.2020 Olimpia Grudziadz Olimpia Grudziadz 0-1 HT 0-1 Kalisz Kalisz POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Olimpia Grudziadz
0-1
AWAY Kalisz
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Olimpia Grudziadz vs Kalisz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kalisz edged past Olimpia Grudziadz 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Olimpia Grudziadz at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Olimpia Grudziadz had 62% of the ball to Kalisz's 38%, shots finished 16-6.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Kalisz led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Olimpia Grudziadz and 1.67 for Kalisz.

What was the final score of Olimpia Grudziadz vs Kalisz?

Olimpia Grudziadz 0-1 Kalisz in the Poland - 2nd Division on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Olimpia Grudziadz vs Kalisz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Olimpia Grudziadz win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Olimpia Grudziadz 41%, draw 26%, Kalisz 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Olimpia Grudziadz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Olimpia Grudziadz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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