FC Sochi 2-3 Krasnodar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
45%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.4
2-3 Goals
45%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.94
6+ Goals
9%
8.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.02
1/2
6%
21.85
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1 EV+ ✗
17%
7.43
X/2
13%
4.56
X/X
6%
5.64
2/1
5%
33.0
2/2
26%
2.57
2/X
10%
13.65
Value flag · X/1 at 7.43 — our 17% vs market 9.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+3.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
45%
Away Win
48%
-2.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.6pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Sochi EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 52%
+18% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +18%
1.36/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.24
+15% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +67% / +7%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 80%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
18.4 Crosses 12.4
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Sochi
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Krasnodar
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.45 xG 1.88
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
316 Passes 384
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 28
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.07.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
15.04.2023 FC Sochi FC Sochi 0-2 HT 0-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
03.09.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-1 HT 0-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
05.12.2021 FC Sochi FC Sochi 1-2 HT 1-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
26.09.2021 Krasnodar Krasnodar 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
01.05.2021 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-3 HT 0-1 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Sochi
2-3
AWAY Krasnodar
3.05 xG 2.65
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 20
10 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
293 Passes 424
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 31
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FC Sochi vs Krasnodar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar nicked a narrow win over FC Sochi 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Krasnodar as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, FC Sochi had 43% of the ball to Krasnodar's 57%, shots finished 18-20, expected goals 3.05 to 2.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for FC Sochi and 2.00 for Krasnodar.

What was the final score of FC Sochi vs Krasnodar?

FC Sochi 2-3 Krasnodar in the Russia - Premier League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Sochi vs Krasnodar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split FC Sochi 31%, draw 23%, Krasnodar 45%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krasnodar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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