Lokomotiv Moscow 2-0 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 18 May 2024

Lokomotiv Moscow
2-0 HT 1-0
Fakel
📅18/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Fakel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.8
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
33%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.75
Over 2.5
33%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.88
No
63%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.98
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
3.92
6+ Goals
8%
17.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 38% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
2.42
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
14.7
X/1
17%
4.0
X/2
14%
8.34
X/X
20%
4.63
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
14%
6.71
2/X
4%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
52%
-12.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
33%
Away Win
23%
+9.9pp
67%
Under 2.5
53%
+13.5pp
33%
Over 2.5
47%
-13.5pp
37%
BTTS Yes
49%
-12.0pp
63%
BTTS No
51%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lokomotiv Moscow v Fakel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 26%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.41/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.16
+8% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / +26%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
356 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 67%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
16.4 Crosses 13.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Fakel Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Fakel
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.07 xG 0.69
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
330 Passes 157
71% Pass Accuracy 56%
23 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.07.2023 Fakel Fakel 1-4 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
20.05.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
11.09.2022 Fakel Fakel 2-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS

Lokomotiv Moscow 2-0 Fakel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
2-0
AWAY Fakel
1.70 xG 1.24
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 12
331 Passes 340
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 33
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow saw off Fakel 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Lokomotiv Moscow made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 49% of the ball to Fakel's 51%, shots finished 16-18, expected goals 1.70 to 1.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 1.00 for Fakel.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Fakel?

Lokomotiv Moscow 2-0 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 39%, draw 28%, Fakel 33%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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