Zeleznicar Pancevo 3-1 Novi Pazar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 18 May 2024

📅18/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
26%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
12%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
64%
-10.7pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.4pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+10.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zeleznicar Pancevo EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 19%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +16%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -7%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
365 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
Crosses 12.8
Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zeleznicar Pancevo
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Novi Pazar
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.65 xG 1.23
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
232 Passes 272
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.02.2024 Zeleznicar Pancevo Zeleznicar Pancevo 2-2 HT 2-1 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
01.11.2023 Zeleznicar Pancevo Zeleznicar Pancevo 0-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRBK
27.08.2023 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 1-0 HT 1-0 Zeleznicar Pancevo Zeleznicar Pancevo SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zeleznicar Pancevo
3-1
AWAY Novi Pazar
2.17 xG 1.18
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
306 Passes 250
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
33 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Novi Pazar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zeleznicar Pancevo beat Novi Pazar 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Zeleznicar Pancevo as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Zeleznicar Pancevo had 55% of the ball to Novi Pazar's 45%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.17 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Novi Pazar led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Zeleznicar Pancevo and 1.33 for Novi Pazar.

What was the final score of Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Novi Pazar?

Zeleznicar Pancevo 3-1 Novi Pazar in the Serbia - Super League on 18/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Novi Pazar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zeleznicar Pancevo win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Zeleznicar Pancevo 53%, draw 21%, Novi Pazar 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zeleznicar Pancevo), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zeleznicar Pancevo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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