FK Ufa 1-2 Arsenal Tula — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.59
Over 2.5
40%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.8pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.7pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Ufa EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 33%
-5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.12/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.02
-3% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
290 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.0
Crosses 6.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Ufa
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Arsenal Tula
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.30 xG 0.66
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
264 Passes 386
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.09.2024 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Ufa FK Ufa RUS1
26.03.2023 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 2-1 HT 1-0 FK Ufa FK Ufa RUS1
14.05.2022 FK Ufa FK Ufa 2-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS
06.11.2021 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Ufa FK Ufa RUS
16.05.2021 FK Ufa FK Ufa 2-1 HT 2-1 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS
14.08.2020 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 2-3 HT 1-1 FK Ufa FK Ufa RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Ufa
1-2
AWAY Arsenal Tula
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 3
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FK Ufa vs Arsenal Tula
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal Tula edged past FK Ufa 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 32% — and on the day Arsenal Tula made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FK Ufa had 55% of the ball to Arsenal Tula's 45%, shots finished 11-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Ufa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FK Ufa and 1.00 for Arsenal Tula.

What was the final score of FK Ufa vs Arsenal Tula?

FK Ufa 1-2 Arsenal Tula in the Russia - FNL on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Ufa vs Arsenal Tula?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Ufa win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FK Ufa 40%, draw 27%, Arsenal Tula 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FK Ufa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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