Libertad 2-0 Uni. Catolica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 18 Jul 2024

Libertad
2-0 HT 0-0
Uni. Catolica
📅18/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Copa Sudamericana – 2024

Libertad vs Uni. Catolica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.1
6+ Goals
11%
19.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.72
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.7
X/1
15%
4.32
X/2
10%
7.49
X/X
11%
4.26
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
10%
5.89
2/X
6%
14.3
Value flag · 1/X at 13.7 — our 12% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.1pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.0pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Libertad v Uni. Catolica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.57/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/2.25
+39% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +72% / -55%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
288 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
– Crosses 14.4
– Yellow Cards 1.4

Libertad vs Uni. Catolica Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Uni. Catolica
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.61 xG 1.05
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
206 Passes 405
71% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 31
16 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.03.2024 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
07.11.2023 Uni. Catolica 0-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
27.05.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-2 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1

Libertad 2-0 Uni. Catolica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-0
AWAY Uni. Catolica
1.63 xG 0.27
45% Ball Possession 55%
18 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 5
341 Passes 434
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
31 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Uni. Catolica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad got the better of Uni. Catolica 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Libertad as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Libertad had 45% of the ball to Uni. Catolica's 55%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 1.63 to 0.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Uni. Catolica led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Libertad and 1.00 for Uni. Catolica.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Uni. Catolica?

Libertad 2-0 Uni. Catolica in the Copa Sudamericana on 18/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Uni. Catolica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Libertad 43%, draw 29%, Uni. Catolica 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Libertad), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Libertad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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