Boca Juniors 3-2 San Lorenzo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.41
Over 2.5
36%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.51
No
61%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
1.97
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
15%
6.8
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.64
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.55
X/1
17%
3.66
X/2
8%
8.1
X/X
14%
3.52
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
9%
7.77
2/X
7%
18.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-2.5pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.4pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.1pp
64%
Under 2.5
67%
-3.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
33%
+3.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
36%
+3.1pp
61%
BTTS No
64%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boca Juniors EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY San Lorenzo EU Bookmakers 24%
+6% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / -5%
1.56/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.15
+13% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +41%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
354 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 70%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
22.4 Crosses 13.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boca Juniors
2W-1D-3L
AWAY San Lorenzo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.22 xG 1.13
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
382 Passes 244
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2024 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 2-1 HT 1-1 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
09.11.2023 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-1 HT 0-0 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
12.04.2023 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-0 HT 1-0 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
09.07.2022 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 2-1 HT 1-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
28.07.2021 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 0-2 HT 0-1 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
21.09.2019 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 0-2 HT 0-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boca Juniors
3-2
AWAY San Lorenzo
1.00 xG 1.97
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
279 Passes 183
74% Pass Accuracy 64%
15 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boca Juniors edged past San Lorenzo 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Boca Juniors as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Boca Juniors had 57% of the ball to San Lorenzo's 43%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 1.00 to 1.97 — on chances, San Lorenzo could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Lorenzo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Boca Juniors and 1.17 for San Lorenzo.

What was the final score of Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo?

Boca Juniors 3-2 San Lorenzo in the Argentina - Premier League on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boca Juniors win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Boca Juniors 48%, draw 29%, San Lorenzo 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Boca Juniors) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Boca Juniors) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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