Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Boca Juniors v San Lorenzo — Team-Based Signals
Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Boca Juniors 2-1 San Lorenzo — Actual Match Statistics
Boca Juniors squeezed past San Lorenzo 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Boca Juniors as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The one blemish: under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (59%) never looked like landing.
On the day, Boca Juniors had 62% of the ball to San Lorenzo's 38%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 2.34 to 1.01 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Boca Juniors's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Lorenzo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Boca Juniors and 1.00 for San Lorenzo.
Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo Result & Final Score
Boca Juniors 2 - 1 San Lorenzo in the Argentina - Premier League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Boca Juniors win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Boca Juniors 47%, draw 33%, San Lorenzo 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Boca Juniors) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.