Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Boca Juniors v San Lorenzo — Team-Based Signals
Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
Boca Juniors
ARJ
1-0
HT 1-0
Boca Juniors
ARJ
2-1
HT 1-1
Boca Juniors
ARJ
0-2
HT 0-1
San Lorenzo
ARJ
0-2
HT 0-1
Boca Juniors
ARJ
3-0
HT 1-0
San Lorenzo
ARJ
Boca Juniors 2-1 San Lorenzo — Actual Match Statistics
Boca Juniors squeezed past San Lorenzo 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Boca Juniors as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Boca Juniors had 62% of the ball to San Lorenzo's 38%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 2.34 to 1.01 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Boca Juniors's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Lorenzo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Boca Juniors and 1.00 for San Lorenzo.
What was the final score of Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo?
Boca Juniors 2-1 San Lorenzo in the Argentina - Premier League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Boca Juniors win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Boca Juniors 42%, draw 32%, San Lorenzo 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Boca Juniors) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.