Defensa y Justicia 1-0 Estudiantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 30 Mar 2024

Defensa y Justicia
1-0 HT 1-0
Estudiantes
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Argentina - Premier League – 2024

Defensa y Justicia vs Estudiantes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.09
6+ Goals
9%
19.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 33% vs market 29.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.69
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
8%
13.95
X/1
11%
6.22
X/2
17%
4.72
X/X
15%
4.28
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.19
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
31%
-2.8pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.3pp
42%
Away Win
42%
+0.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.9pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Defensa y Justicia v Estudiantes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensa y Justicia EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Estudiantes EU Bookmakers 45%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -14%
1.22/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.02
+18% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
278 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 73%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
18.8 Crosses 16.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Defensa y Justicia vs Estudiantes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensa y Justicia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Estudiantes
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.99 xG 1.88
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
256 Passes 327
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.12.2023 Estudiantes Estudiantes 1-0 HT 0-0 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJK
06.11.2023 Estudiantes Estudiantes 2-1 HT 1-0 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
14.05.2023 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 1-1 HT 1-1 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJ
20.09.2022 Estudiantes Estudiantes 1-2 HT 0-1 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
16.10.2021 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 2-1 HT 1-0 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJ
03.03.2021 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 1-0 HT 1-0 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJK

Defensa y Justicia 1-0 Estudiantes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensa y Justicia
1-0
AWAY Estudiantes
0.37 xG 0.54
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
220 Passes 484
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 24
7 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Defensa y Justicia vs Estudiantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensa y Justicia edged past Estudiantes 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Estudiantes at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Defensa y Justicia had 34% of the ball to Estudiantes's 66%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.37 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensa y Justicia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Defensa y Justicia and 1.00 for Estudiantes.

What was the final score of Defensa y Justicia vs Estudiantes?

Defensa y Justicia 1-0 Estudiantes in the Argentina - Premier League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensa y Justicia vs Estudiantes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Estudiantes win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Defensa y Justicia 28%, draw 30%, Estudiantes 42%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Estudiantes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Estudiantes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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