Philadelphia Union 1-1 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Concacaf League Cup, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
21%
2.85
6+ Goals
10%
7.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.69 — our 30% vs market 16.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.14
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.27
X/2
12%
9.69
X/X
15%
5.78
2/1
7%
21.0
2/2
14%
6.69
2/X
6%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
56%
-11.2pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.8pp
30%
Away Win
21%
+8.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 25%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +66% / +66%
2.12/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/0.47
-13% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / +150%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
420 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 75%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
16.6 Crosses 12.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 4.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
1-1
AWAY Mazatlan
1.05 xG 0.86
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
202 Passes 450
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union and Mazatlan shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Philadelphia Union at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Philadelphia Union had 35% of the ball to Mazatlan's 65%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.05 to 0.86.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs Mazatlan?

Philadelphia Union 1-1 Mazatlan in the Concacaf League Cup on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 44%, draw 26%, Mazatlan 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Philadelphia Union) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✓ BTTS Yes
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