Mikkeli 4-2 Jaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykkönen, 18 Aug 2024

Mikkeli
4-2 HT 3-1
Jaro
📅18/08/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
6.35
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
57%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
12%
8.04
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.65 — our 24% vs market 16.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
22%
X/X
12%
2/1
3%
2/2
25%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
12%
+6.3pp
24%
Draw
17%
+7.0pp
57%
Away Win
70%
-13.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.5pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mikkeli EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Jaro EU Bookmakers 75%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
0.60/2.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.23/1.62
-33% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -54%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
251 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mikkeli
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Jaro
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.07.2024 Jaro Jaro 2-0 HT 0-0 Mikkeli Mikkeli FİN2
23.05.2024 Mikkeli Mikkeli 1-4 HT 0-2 Jaro Jaro FİN2
22.07.2023 Jaro Jaro 0-2 HT 0-1 Mikkeli Mikkeli FİN2
13.05.2023 Mikkeli Mikkeli 1-0 HT 1-0 Jaro Jaro FİN2
23.07.2022 Jaro Jaro 2-0 HT 1-0 Mikkeli Mikkeli FİN2
25.05.2022 Mikkeli Mikkeli 0-0 HT 0-0 Jaro Jaro FİK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mikkeli
4-2
AWAY Jaro
29% Ball Possession 71%
7 Total Shots 32
4 Shots on Target 12
1 Corners 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mikkeli vs Jaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mikkeli got the better of Jaro 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Jaro at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Mikkeli had 29% of the ball to Jaro's 71%, shots finished 7-32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jaro led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Mikkeli and 1.33 for Jaro.

What was the final score of Mikkeli vs Jaro?

Mikkeli 4-2 Jaro in the Finland - Ykkönen on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mikkeli vs Jaro?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jaro win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Mikkeli 19%, draw 24%, Jaro 57%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jaro) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jaro) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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