Monarcas Morelia 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.8
Over 2.5
55%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.9pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -14%
1.54/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.71
-12% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
319 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monarcas Morelia
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
05.02.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 HT 1-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
03.11.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
03.02.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-0 HT 1-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
30.09.2022 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-1 HT 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
01.04.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 HT 0-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
16.05.2021 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-2 HT 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
POST-MATCH Monarcas Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monarcas Morelia edged past Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Monarcas Morelia as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Monarcas Morelia and 1.50 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Monarcas Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Monarcas Morelia 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monarcas Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monarcas Morelia win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Monarcas Morelia 48%, draw 25%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monarcas Morelia), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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