Tlaxcala 1-2 Leones Negros Udeg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.32
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
44%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
+0.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-2.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tlaxcala EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 50%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
0.85/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.17/0.48
-26% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / +148%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
242 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tlaxcala
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Leones Negros Udeg
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
24.03.2024 Tlaxcala 0-4 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
30.10.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 2-1 HT 2-1 Tlaxcala MEK2
01.04.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-0 HT 1-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
01.09.2022 Tlaxcala 2-0 HT 1-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
20.03.2022 Tlaxcala 1-2 HT 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
28.10.2021 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 1-0 HT 1-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
POST-MATCH Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros Udeg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones Negros Udeg squeezed past Tlaxcala 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leones Negros Udeg as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tlaxcala and 2.00 for Leones Negros Udeg.

What was the final score of Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Tlaxcala 1-2 Leones Negros Udeg in the Mexico - Primera A on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tlaxcala vs Leones Negros Udeg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tlaxcala 27%, draw 29%, Leones Negros Udeg 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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