Dynamo Dresden 0-1 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 18 Aug 2025

📅18/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.48
Draw
18%
4.08
Away
62%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.33
Over 2.5
60%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.64
2-3 Goals
37%
1.89
4-5 Goals
27%
2.69
6+ Goals
15%
7.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
7.97
1/2 EV+ ✗
13%
19.5
1/X
6%
16.15
X/1
7%
10.8
X/2
19%
4.21
X/X
6%
6.42
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.92
2/X
6%
14.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.5 — our 13% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
20%
+0.2pp
18%
Draw
22%
-3.9pp
63%
Away Win
59%
+3.8pp
40%
Under 2.5
39%
+0.6pp
60%
Over 2.5
61%
-0.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.0pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dynamo Dresden EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 62%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.50/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.77/0.90
+20% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +61%
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
227 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 82%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 44.9
19.3 Crosses 30.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dynamo Dresden
0-1
AWAY Mainz 05
1.66 xG 1.05
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
275 Passes 268
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dynamo Dresden vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 nicked a narrow win over Dynamo Dresden 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mainz 05 as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dynamo Dresden had 52% of the ball to Mainz 05's 48%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.66 to 1.05 — the balance of chances actually favoured Dynamo Dresden.

What was the final score of Dynamo Dresden vs Mainz 05?

Dynamo Dresden 0-1 Mainz 05 in the Germany - DFB Cup on 18/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dynamo Dresden vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Dynamo Dresden 20%, draw 18%, Mainz 05 63%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AFK More Germany - DFB Cup
18 Aug 2025
19:00 Preussen Münster vs Hertha Berlin Analysis →
19:00 Schweinfurt vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Analysis →
21:45 Rot-Weiss Essen vs Borussia Dortmund Analysis →