Rot-Weiss Essen 0-1 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 18 Aug 2025

Rot-Weiss Essen
0-1 HT 0-0
Borussia Dortmund
📅18/08/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Germany - DFB Cup – 2025/2026

Rot-Weiss Essen vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
11%
12.23
Draw
12%
7.13
Away
77%
1.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
3.17
Over 2.5
67%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
8.04
2-3 Goals
36%
2.35
4-5 Goals
32%
2.39
6+ Goals
15%
4.14
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
3%
24.5
1/2 EV+ ✗
13%
20.3
1/X
4%
31.5
X/1
5%
30.0
X/2
15%
3.97
X/X
6%
11.85
2/1
2%
34.5
2/2
49%
1.25
2/X
3%
26.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.3 — our 13% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
11%
Home Win
6%
+4.6pp
12%
Draw
12%
+0.3pp
77%
Away Win
82%
-4.9pp
32%
Under 2.5
28%
+4.3pp
68%
Over 2.5
72%
-4.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.5pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rot-Weiss Essen v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 85%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
0.98/3.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.84/0.54
+139% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +5%
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
223 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 549 · 85%
11.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 39.0
12.6 Crosses 17.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.3

Rot-Weiss Essen vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 8
167 Passes 570
66% Pass Accuracy 88%
4 Box Touches 56
12 Crosses 29
The Meetings
11.07.2017 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 3-2 HT 2-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund HAZ
27.07.2014 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 1-5 HT 1-5 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund HAZ

Rot-Weiss Essen 0-1 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
0-1
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.92 xG 0.86
34% Ball Possession 66%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
238 Passes 568
74% Pass Accuracy 88%
11 Box Touches 37
10 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rot-Weiss Essen vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund nicked a narrow win over Rot-Weiss Essen 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 77%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (68%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rot-Weiss Essen had 34% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 66%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.92 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Rot-Weiss Essen and 3.50 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Rot-Weiss Essen vs Borussia Dortmund?

Rot-Weiss Essen 0-1 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - DFB Cup on 18/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rot-Weiss Essen vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 77%, with the full match-result split Rot-Weiss Essen 11%, draw 12%, Borussia Dortmund 77%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AFK More Germany - DFB Cup
18 Aug 2025
19:00 Preussen Münster vs Hertha Berlin Analysis →
19:00 Schweinfurt vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Analysis →
19:00 Dynamo Dresden vs Mainz 05 Analysis →