Atletico Grau 1-0 Alianza Lima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 18 Sep 2024

📅18/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
41%
2.88
Away
31%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.48
Over 2.5
33%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
22%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-1.9pp
41%
Draw
31%
+9.9pp
31%
Away Win
39%
-8.0pp
67%
Under 2.5
64%
+2.7pp
33%
Over 2.5
36%
-2.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.7pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Grau EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 43%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +23%
1.33/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/0.89
+24% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +20%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
277 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 75%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
16.0 Crosses 16.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Grau
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Alianza Lima
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.59 xG 1.98
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
337 Passes 288
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 0
15.04.2024 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
24.06.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
26.03.2023 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 1-2 HT 1-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
10.07.2022 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 1-2 HT 1-2 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
05.02.2022 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
16.02.2020 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Grau
1-0
AWAY Alianza Lima
1.11 xG 0.88
47% Ball Possession 53%
5 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
272 Passes 304
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 24
7 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Grau edged past Alianza Lima 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was the draw at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (67%) came in.

On the day, Atletico Grau had 47% of the ball to Alianza Lima's 53%, shots finished 5-15, expected goals 1.11 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Atletico Grau and 1.67 for Alianza Lima.

What was the final score of Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima?

Atletico Grau 1-0 Alianza Lima in the Peru - Premier League on 18/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Grau vs Alianza Lima?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atletico Grau 28%, draw 41%, Alianza Lima 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Draw) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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