Zalgiris U19 3-2 The New Saints U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA - Youth League, 18 Sep 2024

📅18/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
57%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.33
Over
56%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.68
No
43%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
22%
4.8
2-3
41%
1.93
4-5
26%
2.81
6+
11%
7.67
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.8 — our 22% vs market 16.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.82
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
16.6
X/1
14%
3.82
X/2
8%
12.35
X/X
11%
6.65
2/1
7%
20.4
2/2
10%
8.96
2/X
6%
17.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Zalgiris U19 win — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
63%
-5.3pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.0pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+4.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.4pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zalgiris U19 EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY The New Saints U19 EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
451 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zalgiris U19
3-2
AWAY The New Saints U19
18 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Zalgiris U19 vs The New Saints U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zalgiris U19 edged past The New Saints U19 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Zalgiris U19 as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 18-14.

What was the final score of Zalgiris U19 vs The New Saints U19?

Zalgiris U19 3-2 The New Saints U19 in the UEFA - Youth League on 18/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zalgiris U19 vs The New Saints U19?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zalgiris U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Zalgiris U19 57%, draw 22%, The New Saints U19 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zalgiris U19), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Zalgiris U19) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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