Boussu Dour Borinage 1-2 RFC Liege — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 18 Oct 2024

📅18/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
2.03
Over
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.6
No
55%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
32%
3.87
2-3
39%
1.83
4-5
20%
3.18
6+
9%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.87 — our 32% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.6pp
22%
Draw
27%
-4.1pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+3.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
58%
-13.8pp
55%
BTTS No
42%
+13.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boussu Dour Borinage EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY RFC Liege EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.94/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.10
-34% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -7%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
296 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 81%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
21.2 Crosses 23.2
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boussu Dour Borinage
0W-1D-1L
AWAY RFC Liege
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.86 xG 1.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
257 Passes 308
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2024 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage 2-2 HT 1-1 RFC Liege RFC Liege BEL2
10.12.2023 RFC Liege RFC Liege 1-0 HT 1-0 Boussu Dour Borinage Boussu Dour Borinage BEL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boussu Dour Borinage
1-2
AWAY RFC Liege
1.72 xG 0.41
74% Ball Possession 26%
20 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 2
498 Passes 115
88% Pass Accuracy 58%
30 Box Touches 6
25 Crosses 2
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Boussu Dour Borinage vs RFC Liege
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RFC Liege edged past Boussu Dour Borinage 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 22% / 40%) promised a tight game; RFC Liege found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Boussu Dour Borinage had 74% of the ball to RFC Liege's 26%, shots finished 20-3, expected goals 1.72 to 0.41 — on chances, Boussu Dour Borinage could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, RFC Liege led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Boussu Dour Borinage and 1.50 for RFC Liege.

What was the final score of Boussu Dour Borinage vs RFC Liege?

Boussu Dour Borinage 1-2 RFC Liege in the Belgium - 1st Division on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boussu Dour Borinage vs RFC Liege?

Before kick-off our model rated an RFC Liege win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Boussu Dour Borinage 38%, draw 22%, RFC Liege 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RFC Liege) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (RFC Liege) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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