Corinthians 5-2 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 18 Oct 2024

📅18/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.43
2-3 Goals EV+ ✗
50%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.46
6+ Goals
9%
13.3
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 1.79 — our 50% vs market 48.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.08
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.0
X/1
13%
3.88
X/2
7%
10.45
X/X
11%
5.09
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
11%
8.31
2/X
8%
15.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-7.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.4pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 21%
+8% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.58/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.33
+16% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
403 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 77%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
23.4 Crosses 16.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.20 xG 1.46
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
415 Passes 310
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.06.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
02.11.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
24.06.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
09.10.2022 Corinthians Corinthians 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
16.06.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
28.11.2021 Corinthians Corinthians 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
5-2
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.90 xG 1.56
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 22
8 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
478 Passes 276
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 24
5 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians swept aside Atletico Paranaense 5-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Corinthians had 61% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 39%, shots finished 14-22, expected goals 1.90 to 1.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Corinthians and 0.67 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense?

Corinthians 5-2 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 50%, draw 26%, Atletico Paranaense 24%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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