Al Shabab Riyadh 1-2 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 18 Oct 2024

📅18/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.87
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
52%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.57
2-3 Goals
42%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
27%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
23%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.6pp
52%
Away Win
54%
-2.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.7pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Shabab Riyadh EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 58%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +17%
1.30/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.39/1.23
+13% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / +1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
297 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 82%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
13.8 Crosses 19.5
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Shabab Riyadh
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Al Nassr
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.39 xG 1.93
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
365 Passes 393
86% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2024 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 2-3 HT 1-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
11.12.2023 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 2-5 HT 1-3 Al Nassr Al Nassr SAKK
29.08.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 4-0 HT 3-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
28.07.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh AŞMPL
23.05.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 3-2 HT 1-2 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
14.01.2023 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Shabab Riyadh
1-2
AWAY Al Nassr
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 7
239 Passes 398
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
POST-MATCH Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr edged past Al Shabab Riyadh 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Nassr as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Al Shabab Riyadh had 41% of the ball to Al Nassr's 59%, shots finished 12-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Nassr led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al Shabab Riyadh and 2.50 for Al Nassr.

What was the final score of Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Nassr?

Al Shabab Riyadh 1-2 Al Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Al Shabab Riyadh 22%, draw 26%, Al Nassr 52%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nassr), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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