Arbroath 3-1 St. Johnstone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 18 Oct 2025

Arbroath
3-1 HT 0-1
St. Johnstone
📅18/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Scotland - Championship – 2025/2026

Arbroath vs St. Johnstone Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
13%
4.48
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
62%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.34
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
29%
3.24
6+ Goals
8%
11.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.24 — our 29% vs market 24.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
8.38
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
22.25
1/X
9%
17.25
X/1
5%
10.25
X/2
18%
4.05
X/X
10%
5.53
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
31%
2.06
2/X
7%
15.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.25 — our 12% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
13%
Home Win
19%
-6.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.4pp
62%
Away Win
58%
+3.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.9pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arbroath v St. Johnstone — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arbroath EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Johnstone EU Bookmakers 62%
+6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
0.62/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
-42% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -12%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
210 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Arbroath vs St. Johnstone Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arbroath
0W-1D-5L
AWAY St. Johnstone
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 7
11 Corners 5
The Meetings
23.08.2025 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 3-0 HT 1-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
15.08.2021 Arbroath Arbroath 2-2 HT 1-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKLK
26.08.2009 Arbroath Arbroath 0-6 HT 0-4 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKLK
08.03.2003 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 2-1 HT 1-1 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
01.01.2003 Arbroath Arbroath 2-3 HT 1-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKCL
09.11.2002 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 2-0 HT 1-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
POST-MATCH Arbroath vs St. Johnstone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arbroath saw off St. Johnstone 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. St. Johnstone carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Johnstone led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Arbroath and 3.00 for St. Johnstone.

What was the final score of Arbroath vs St. Johnstone?

Arbroath 3-1 St. Johnstone in the Scotland - Championship on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arbroath vs St. Johnstone?

Before kick-off our model rated an St. Johnstone win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Arbroath 13%, draw 26%, St. Johnstone 62%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Johnstone) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Johnstone) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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