Ayr United 2-1 Greenock Morton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.71
Over 2.5
49%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.95
6+ Goals
9%
18.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.52
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.2
X/1
20%
4.28
X/2
6%
8.21
X/X
7%
4.42
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
18%
6.83
2/X
7%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-2.1pp
22%
Draw
27%
-5.1pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.0pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ayr United EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Greenock Morton EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
0.60/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.33/1.55
+18% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +33%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
27.0 Crosses 8.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ayr United
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Greenock Morton
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
34% Ball Possession 66%
12 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
5 Crosses 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.08.2025 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 2-2 HT 1-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
08.03.2025 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 2-1 HT 0-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
28.12.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 0-0 HT 0-0 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
08.11.2024 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 1-1 HT 1-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
28.09.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 1-0 HT 0-0 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
09.04.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 1-1 HT 1-1 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
POST-MATCH Ayr United vs Greenock Morton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ayr United edged past Greenock Morton 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ayr United as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ayr United and 1.00 for Greenock Morton.

What was the final score of Ayr United vs Greenock Morton?

Ayr United 2-1 Greenock Morton in the Scotland - Championship on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ayr United vs Greenock Morton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ayr United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Ayr United 48%, draw 22%, Greenock Morton 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ayr United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ayr United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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