Ayr United 1-0 Greenock Morton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.91
Over 2.5
54%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.46
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.44
6+ Goals
12%
13.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.21
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.9
X/1
17%
3.96
X/2
10%
9.26
X/X
14%
5.16
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
23.15
2/2
10%
7.16
2/X
5%
15.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.3pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.9pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ayr United EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Greenock Morton EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -1%
1.77/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.19
+0% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +37%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
403 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
Crosses 8.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ayr United
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Greenock Morton
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
09.04.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 1-1 HT 1-1 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
02.01.2024 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 3-0 HT 1-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
28.10.2023 Ayr United Ayr United 0-1 HT 0-0 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
05.08.2023 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 3-1 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
08.04.2023 Ayr United Ayr United 1-1 HT 0-0 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
07.03.2023 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 1-3 HT 1-3 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ayr United
1-0
AWAY Greenock Morton
34% Ball Possession 66%
12 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
5 Crosses 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ayr United vs Greenock Morton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ayr United edged past Greenock Morton 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ayr United as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Ayr United had 34% of the ball to Greenock Morton's 66%, shots finished 12-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Greenock Morton led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ayr United and 1.67 for Greenock Morton.

What was the final score of Ayr United vs Greenock Morton?

Ayr United 1-0 Greenock Morton in the Scotland - Championship on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ayr United vs Greenock Morton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ayr United win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Ayr United 50%, draw 25%, Greenock Morton 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ayr United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ayr United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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