Greenock Morton 2-2 Ayr United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
35%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.69
4-5 Goals
17%
3.9
6+ Goals
10%
18.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 32% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.86
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1 EV+ ✗
17%
6.48
X/2
10%
4.94
X/X
12%
4.09
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
19%
3.19
2/X
8%
12.85
Value flag · X/1 at 6.48 — our 17% vs market 11.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
30%
+9.1pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.9pp
35%
Away Win
41%
-6.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.8pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greenock Morton EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Ayr United EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -4%
1.81/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/0.33
+7% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
9.5 Crosses 9.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greenock Morton
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Ayr United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
2 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.03.2025 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 2-1 HT 0-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
28.12.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 0-0 HT 0-0 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
08.11.2024 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 1-1 HT 1-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
28.09.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 1-0 HT 0-0 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
09.04.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 1-1 HT 1-1 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton İKCL
02.01.2024 Greenock Morton Greenock Morton 3-0 HT 1-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
POST-MATCH Greenock Morton vs Ayr United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greenock Morton and Ayr United shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Greenock Morton had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Greenock Morton and 0.67 for Ayr United.

What was the final score of Greenock Morton vs Ayr United?

Greenock Morton 2-2 Ayr United in the Scotland - Championship on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greenock Morton vs Ayr United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Greenock Morton win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Greenock Morton 39%, draw 26%, Ayr United 35%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Greenock Morton) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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