Union Saint-Gilloise 3-1 Sporting Charleroi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.53
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
11%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.45
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.29
6+ Goals
9%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 27% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.89
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
5%
16.25
X/1
24%
3.93
X/2
4%
11.8
X/X
11%
5.71
2/1
10%
22.7
2/2
4%
9.99
2/X
5%
18.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
61%
+6.9pp
21%
Draw
22%
-1.7pp
11%
Away Win
17%
-5.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.2pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Charleroi EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +6%
2.19/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/2.09
+2% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
369 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 71%
32.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
19.5 Crosses 15.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Sporting Charleroi
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.58 xG 0.43
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
326 Passes 362
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 12
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.01.2025 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 1-2 HT 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
16.08.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
10.12.2023 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 1-3 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
01.10.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-1 HT 3-1 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
28.01.2023 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 0-1 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
29.07.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
3-1
AWAY Sporting Charleroi
0.94 xG 0.73
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 2
348 Passes 293
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sporting Charleroi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise beat Sporting Charleroi 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 51% of the ball to Sporting Charleroi's 49%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 0.94 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.50 for Sporting Charleroi.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sporting Charleroi?

Union Saint-Gilloise 3-1 Sporting Charleroi in the Belgium - Pro League on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sporting Charleroi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 68%, draw 21%, Sporting Charleroi 11%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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