Sporting Charleroi 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 11 Jan 2025

Sporting Charleroi
1-2 HT 1-0
Union Saint-Gilloise
📅11/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2024/2025

Sporting Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
37%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.11
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.54
6+ Goals
10%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 28% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.67
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
12%
6.51
X/2
15%
4.93
X/X
11%
4.54
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.15
2/X
6%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
31%
+7.7pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.8pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-3.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Charleroi v Union Saint-Gilloise — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Charleroi EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.40/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.27
-1% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
372 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.5
16.7 Crosses 17.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8

Sporting Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Charleroi
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.45 xG 1.64
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
388 Passes 315
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.08.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
10.12.2023 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 1-3 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
01.10.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-1 HT 3-1 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
28.01.2023 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 0-1 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
29.07.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
19.02.2022 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 0-3 HT 0-2 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL

Sporting Charleroi 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Charleroi
1-2
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.69 xG 1.27
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 8
301 Passes 354
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
7 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise nicked a narrow win over Sporting Charleroi 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; Union Saint-Gilloise found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting Charleroi had 47% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 53%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 0.69 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Sporting Charleroi and 2.00 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Sporting Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Sporting Charleroi 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Pro League on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Charleroi win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Sporting Charleroi 39%, draw 24%, Union Saint-Gilloise 38%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Charleroi) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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