Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-0 Arka Gdynia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
12%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
56%
+0.8pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.5pp
20%
Away Win
20%
+0.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.9pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Arka Gdynia EU Bookmakers 23%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -14%
1.72/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/1.79
+8% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
378 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
32.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
20.7 Crosses 14.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Arka Gdynia
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
447 Passes 322
24.11.2019 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 HT 0-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
19.07.2019 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 0-3 HT 0-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
04.12.2018 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 0-2 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POLK
30.11.2018 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-1 HT 0-0 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
29.07.2018 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia 0-2 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
17.03.2018 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-2 HT 1-1 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
4-0
AWAY Arka Gdynia
2.79 xG 0.70
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 5
394 Passes 302
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Arka Gdynia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok ran out comfortable winners over Arka Gdynia 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 55% of the ball to Arka Gdynia's 45%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 2.79 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 0.50 for Arka Gdynia.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Arka Gdynia?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-0 Arka Gdynia in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Arka Gdynia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 57%, draw 22%, Arka Gdynia 20%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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