Korona Kielce 1-1 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.83
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.73
6+ Goals
10%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 29% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.23
1/2
9%
29.0
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
14%
6.0
X/2
15%
5.4
X/X
15%
4.3
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
11%
3.59
2/X
5%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
34%
+5.8pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.3pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-3.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.4pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 42%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -11%
1.64/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.08
-7% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
276 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 426 · 77%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
24.9 Crosses 19.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Korona Kielce
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.85 xG 1.60
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
280 Passes 386
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.05.2025 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-1 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
01.12.2024 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-4 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
19.02.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 3-1 HT 2-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
12.08.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
06.04.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-1 HT 0-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
18.09.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-2 HT 1-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Korona Kielce
1-1
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
2.25 xG 0.84
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 7
272 Passes 402
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 26
31 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Korona Kielce and Gornik Zabrze shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Korona Kielce had 43% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 57%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 2.25 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gornik Zabrze led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Korona Kielce and 2.00 for Gornik Zabrze.

What was the final score of Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze?

Korona Kielce 1-1 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated a Korona Kielce win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Korona Kielce 40%, draw 26%, Gornik Zabrze 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Korona Kielce) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Korona Kielce) ✓ Under 2.5
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