Villarreal 1-1 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 18 Dec 2024

Villarreal
1-1 HT 1-1
Rayo Vallecano
📅18/12/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.45
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.26
6+ Goals
12%
11.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.28
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
14.25
X/1
17%
4.15
X/2
10%
9.24
X/X
9%
5.12
2/1
8%
23.4
2/2
7%
7.01
2/X
7%
15.0
Value flag · 1/X at 14.25 — our 10% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-2.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+0.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.8pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Villarreal v Rayo Vallecano — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 25%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.90/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.36
+17% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +21%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
305 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
19.6 Crosses 15.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7

Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.57 xG 1.38
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
377 Passes 294
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.04.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 3-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
24.09.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
28.05.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
30.01.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 0-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
12.05.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-5 HT 1-4 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
12.12.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 2-0 HT 2-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1

Villarreal 1-1 Rayo Vallecano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
1-1
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.39 xG 1.49
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
288 Passes 369
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 37
21 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal and Rayo Vallecano couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Villarreal at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Villarreal had 45% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 55%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 1.39 to 1.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Villarreal and 0.83 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano?

Villarreal 1-1 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 18/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 51%, draw 26%, Rayo Vallecano 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Villarreal), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Villarreal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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