Villarreal 3-0 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.38
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.51
6+ Goals
10%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 29% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.33
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.3
X/1
19%
4.08
X/2
9%
8.7
X/X
9%
4.96
2/1
10%
23.6
2/2
11%
6.7
2/X
7%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-1.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 26%
-6% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -4%
1.83/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.22
+7% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +30%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
366 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 76%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
18.6 Crosses 16.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.51 xG 1.28
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
378 Passes 265
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.09.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
28.05.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
30.01.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 0-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
12.05.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-5 HT 1-4 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
12.12.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 2-0 HT 2-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
29.01.2020 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-2 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İSPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
3-0
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
348 Passes 430
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal cruised past Rayo Vallecano 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Villarreal had 46% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 54%, shots finished 15-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Villarreal and 0.83 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano?

Villarreal 3-0 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 51%, draw 24%, Rayo Vallecano 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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