Racing Ferrol 1-4 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 18 Dec 2024

Racing Ferrol
1-4 HT 0-1
Almeria
📅18/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Racing Ferrol vs Almeria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
48%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.74
Over 2.5
40%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
1.85
No
66%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.81
2-3 Goals
35%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.9
6+ Goals
7%
17.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 40% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.13
1/2
5%
27.0
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
5%
7.77
X/2 EV+ ✗
25%
4.3
X/X
17%
4.39
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.67
2/X
3%
14.0
Value flag · X/2 at 4.3 — our 25% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
25%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
47%
Away Win
48%
-0.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
54%
+6.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
46%
-6.6pp
34%
BTTS Yes
50%
-15.6pp
66%
BTTS No
50%
+15.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Racing Ferrol v Almeria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Racing Ferrol EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 52%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.23/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.07
+27% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +14%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
253 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 82%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.0 Crosses 11.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Racing Ferrol vs Almeria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Racing Ferrol
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Almeria
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
The Meetings
16.04.2006 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol 1-1 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
13.11.2005 Almeria Almeria 2-1 HT 1-0 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol İS2
06.02.2005 Almeria Almeria 1-6 HT 0-2 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol İS2
05.09.2004 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol 0-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
16.03.2003 Almeria Almeria 3-2 HT 3-2 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol İS2
13.10.2002 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol 1-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS2

Racing Ferrol 1-4 Almeria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Racing Ferrol
1-4
AWAY Almeria
1.01 xG 2.26
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
289 Passes 265
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 26
31 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Racing Ferrol vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria cruised past Racing Ferrol 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Almeria as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (66%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Racing Ferrol had 52% of the ball to Almeria's 48%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.01 to 2.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Racing Ferrol and 1.50 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Racing Ferrol vs Almeria?

Racing Ferrol 1-4 Almeria in the Spain - 2nd Division on 18/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Racing Ferrol vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Racing Ferrol 26%, draw 26%, Almeria 47%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almeria) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Almeria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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