USM Alger 2-2 ES Ben Aknoun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Algeria - 1st Division, 18 Dec 2025

📅18/12/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.47
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.96
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.66
6+ Goals
9%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.96 — our 34% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
64%
-3.7pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.2pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.8pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME USM Alger EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY ES Ben Aknoun EU Bookmakers 17%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.55/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.04
+4% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +28%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME USM Alger
1W-0D-1L
AWAY ES Ben Aknoun
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
30.05.2024 USM Alger USM Alger 0-2 HT 0-1 ES Ben Aknoun ES Ben Aknoun CZYR
23.01.2024 ES Ben Aknoun ES Ben Aknoun 1-2 HT 0-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME USM Alger
2-2
AWAY ES Ben Aknoun
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH USM Alger vs ES Ben Aknoun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

USM Alger and ES Ben Aknoun shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. USM Alger carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, USM Alger had 57% of the ball to ES Ben Aknoun's 43%, shots finished 11-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for USM Alger and 1.50 for ES Ben Aknoun.

What was the final score of USM Alger vs ES Ben Aknoun?

USM Alger 2-2 ES Ben Aknoun in the Algeria - 1st Division on 18/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for USM Alger vs ES Ben Aknoun?

Before kick-off our model rated a USM Alger win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split USM Alger 60%, draw 22%, ES Ben Aknoun 18%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (USM Alger) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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