Irak 2-1 Japonya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Asian Cup, 19 Jan 2024

Irak
2-1 HT 2-0
Japonya
📅19/01/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
Asian Cup – 2023

Irak vs Japonya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
7.78
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
62%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.94
2-3 Goals
40%
1.94
4-5 Goals
23%
2.8
6+ Goals
11%
7.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
15.15
1/2
8%
21.75
1/X
7%
23.0
X/1
8%
19.95
X/2
13%
3.46
X/X
7%
8.23
2/1
4%
34.0
2/2
40%
1.47
2/X
7%
23.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
10%
+7.6pp
20%
Draw
18%
+2.3pp
62%
Away Win
71%
-9.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.1pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Irak v Japonya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Irak EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Japonya EU Bookmakers 75%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
0.21/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.24/0.38
-26% / +105% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -30%
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Irak vs Japonya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Irak
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Japonya
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
5 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
366 Passes 392
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
13.06.2017 Irak Irak 1-1 HT 0-1 Japonya Japonya DKE
06.10.2016 Japonya Japonya 2-1 HT 1-0 Irak Irak DKE
11.06.2015 Japonya Japonya 4-0 HT 3-0 Irak Irak HAZ
16.01.2015 Irak Irak 0-1 HT 0-1 Japonya Japonya ASK
11.06.2013 Irak Irak 0-1 HT 0-0 Japonya Japonya DKE
11.09.2012 Japonya Japonya 1-0 HT 1-0 Irak Irak DKE

Irak 2-1 Japonya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Irak
2-1
AWAY Japonya
0.78 xG 1.75
28% Ball Possession 72%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 13
138 Passes 485
60% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 42
10 Crosses 35
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Irak vs Japonya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Irak squeezed past Japonya 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Japonya at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Irak had 28% of the ball to Japonya's 72%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.78 to 1.75 — the balance of chances actually favoured Japonya.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Japonya led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Irak and 1.67 for Japonya.

What was the final score of Irak vs Japonya?

Irak 2-1 Japonya in the Asian Cup on 19/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Irak vs Japonya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Japonya win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Irak 18%, draw 20%, Japonya 62%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Japonya), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Japonya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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