Manchester United 1-3 Brighton & Hove Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 19 Jan 2025

Manchester United
1-3 HT 1-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
📅19/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.19
6+ Goals
12%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 25% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.1
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
8%
12.1
X/1
16%
5.27
X/2
9%
6.75
X/X
13%
4.73
2/1
8%
24.7
2/2
15%
4.57
2/X
5%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.2pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester United v Brighton & Hove Albion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester United EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 34%
+9% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.30/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.23
+13% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 81%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
14.3 Crosses 16.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester United
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.25 xG 1.78
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
384 Passes 460
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.08.2024 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1 HT 1-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
19.05.2024 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-2 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
16.09.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 1-3 HT 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
04.05.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
23.04.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-0 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United FAK
07.08.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 1-2 HT 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP

Manchester United 1-3 Brighton & Hove Albion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester United
1-3
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
1.48 xG 1.93
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
382 Passes 355
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brighton & Hove Albion got the better of Manchester United 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Manchester United at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Manchester United had 52% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 48%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 1.48 to 1.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brighton & Hove Albion led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Manchester United and 1.33 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

What was the final score of Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Manchester United 1-3 Brighton & Hove Albion in the England - Premier League on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Manchester United 43%, draw 26%, Brighton & Hove Albion 31%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Manchester United)
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