Nottingham Forest 3-2 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 19 Jan 2025

Nottingham Forest
3-2 HT 3-0
Southampton
📅19/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.0
6+ Goals
11%
9.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 25% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.68
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
18.0
X/1
15%
3.82
X/2
9%
14.2
X/X
11%
6.58
2/1
9%
21.7
2/2
6%
12.0
2/X
5%
20.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-11.8pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.3pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nottingham Forest v Southampton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 17%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -18%
2.97/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.60
-32% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
413 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
19.0 Crosses 17.7
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Southampton
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.88 xG 1.30
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
229 Passes 470
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.08.2024 Southampton Southampton 0-1 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
08.05.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 4-3 HT 3-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
04.01.2023 Southampton Southampton 0-1 HT 0-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
14.01.2012 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-3 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNCL
10.09.2011 Southampton Southampton 3-2 HT 2-2 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
03.05.2009 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 3-1 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNCL

Nottingham Forest 3-2 Southampton — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
3-2
AWAY Southampton
2.05 xG 0.89
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
318 Passes 414
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest edged past Southampton 3-2. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Nottingham Forest as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 45% of the ball to Southampton's 55%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.05 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nottingham Forest had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.67 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Southampton?

Nottingham Forest 3-2 Southampton in the England - Premier League on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 54%, draw 25%, Southampton 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nottingham Forest) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nottingham Forest) ✗ BTTS No
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