Southampton 0-1 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 24 Aug 2024

Southampton
0-1 HT 0-0
Nottingham Forest
📅24/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Southampton vs Nottingham Forest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.95
Over 2.5
56%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.33
6+ Goals
14%
12.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.33 — our 24% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.15
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
13%
5.08
X/2
14%
6.37
X/X
12%
4.75
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
15%
4.34
2/X
8%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.0 — our 9% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+6.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.3pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Southampton v Nottingham Forest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southampton EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 34%
-12% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.11/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/0.69
-27% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / +58%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
303 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 77%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
19.1 Crosses 19.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Southampton vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southampton
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.88 xG 1.60
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
406 Passes 196
80% Pass Accuracy 67%
28 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.05.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 4-3 HT 3-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
04.01.2023 Southampton Southampton 0-1 HT 0-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
14.01.2012 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-3 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNCL
10.09.2011 Southampton Southampton 3-2 HT 2-2 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
03.05.2009 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 3-1 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNCL
20.12.2008 Southampton Southampton 0-2 HT 0-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL

Southampton 0-1 Nottingham Forest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southampton
0-1
AWAY Nottingham Forest
0.14 xG 2.45
65% Ball Possession 35%
5 Total Shots 23
1 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 10
596 Passes 294
91% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 33
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Southampton vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest nicked a narrow win over Southampton 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Nottingham Forest found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Southampton had 65% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 35%, shots finished 5-23, expected goals 0.14 to 2.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Nottingham Forest's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nottingham Forest led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Southampton and 2.00 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Southampton vs Nottingham Forest?

Southampton 0-1 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southampton vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nottingham Forest win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Southampton 36%, draw 26%, Nottingham Forest 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nottingham Forest) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nottingham Forest) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
24 Aug 2024
14:30 Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester United Analysis →
17:00 Fulham vs Leicester City Analysis →
17:00 Tottenham vs Everton Analysis →
17:00 Manchester City vs Ipswich Town Analysis →
17:00 Crystal Palace vs West Ham United Analysis →
19:30 Aston Villa vs Arsenal Analysis →