Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 24 Aug 2024

Aston Villa
0-2 HT 0-0
Arsenal
📅24/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Aston Villa vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.87
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
54%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.07
Over 2.5
60%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.7
No
42%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
3.89
2-3 Goals
43%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.16
6+ Goals
13%
10.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.72
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
22.3
1/X
9%
15.0
X/1
7%
9.13
X/2
15%
4.09
X/X
10%
5.45
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.22
2/X
5%
14.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.3 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
23%
-0.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
54%
Away Win
54%
+0.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
44%
-4.8pp
60%
Over 2.5
56%
+4.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.8pp
42%
BTTS No
45%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 57%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.46/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/0.94
+22% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +34%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
295 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 480 · 85%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
17.5 Crosses 16.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6

Aston Villa vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Arsenal
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.73 xG 2.15
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
290 Passes 419
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 40
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
09.12.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
18.02.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-4 HT 2-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
31.08.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 2-1 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
19.03.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
22.10.2021 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 2-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP

Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
0-2
AWAY Arsenal
1.28 xG 0.87
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
271 Passes 469
82% Pass Accuracy 91%
17 Box Touches 35
10 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal saw off Aston Villa 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aston Villa had 39% of the ball to Arsenal's 61%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.28 to 0.87 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aston Villa.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aston Villa and 1.67 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Arsenal?

Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 22%, draw 24%, Arsenal 54%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
24 Aug 2024
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