Wellington Phoenix (K) 3-2 Newcastle Jets (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 19 Jan 2025

Wellington Phoenix (K)
3-2 HT 0-2
Newcastle Jets (K)
📅19/01/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Newcastle Jets (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
13%
X/1
14%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-2.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wellington Phoenix (K) v Newcastle Jets (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix (K) EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle Jets (K) EU Bookmakers 29%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.85/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.98
+44% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
16.0 Crosses 19.1
– Yellow Cards 1.3

Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Newcastle Jets (K) Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix (K)
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Newcastle Jets (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.41 xG 1.23
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 8
256 Passes 254
70% Pass Accuracy 70%
14 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.11.2024 Newcastle Jets (K) Newcastle Jets (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) AVUSTW
04.02.2024 Newcastle Jets (K) Newcastle Jets (K) 3-2 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix (K) Wellington Phoenix (K) AVUSTW

Wellington Phoenix (K) 3-2 Newcastle Jets (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix (K)
3-2
AWAY Newcastle Jets (K)
2.95 xG 1.49
59% Ball Possession 41%
26 Total Shots 8
12 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 3
306 Passes 171
72% Pass Accuracy 57%
42 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Newcastle Jets (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix (K) nicked a narrow win over Newcastle Jets (K) 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Wellington Phoenix (K) as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix (K) had 59% of the ball to Newcastle Jets (K)'s 41%, shots finished 26-8, expected goals 2.95 to 1.49 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Wellington Phoenix (K)'s control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Newcastle Jets (K) led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Wellington Phoenix (K) and 2.00 for Newcastle Jets (K).

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Newcastle Jets (K)?

Wellington Phoenix (K) 3-2 Newcastle Jets (K) in the Australia - W-League on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix (K) vs Newcastle Jets (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix (K) 48%, draw 26%, Newcastle Jets (K) 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wellington Phoenix (K)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Wellington Phoenix (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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