Atlas 0-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Feb 2024

Atlas
0-1 HT 0-0
Leon
📅19/02/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Atlas vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
22%
3.18
Away
39%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.99
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.82
6+ Goals
10%
16.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.3pp
22%
Draw
28%
-5.7pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlas v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 39%
-5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -10%
1.27/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.18
-18% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
318 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
18.0 Crosses 15.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Atlas vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Leon
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.36 xG 1.35
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
276 Passes 348
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.10.2023 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
12.03.2023 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
29.08.2022 Leon Leon 4-2 HT 1-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
20.01.2022 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 1-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
13.12.2021 Atlas Atlas 1-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
10.12.2021 Leon Leon 3-2 HT 1-1 Atlas Atlas MEK

Atlas 0-1 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
0-1
AWAY Leon
1.55 xG 1.77
75% Ball Possession 25%
23 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
531 Passes 124
90% Pass Accuracy 62%
40 Box Touches 21
42 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon nicked a narrow win over Atlas 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 22% / 39%) promised a tight game; Leon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atlas had 75% of the ball to Leon's 25%, shots finished 23-15, expected goals 1.55 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atlas and 1.67 for Leon.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Leon?

Atlas 0-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 19/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlas win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Atlas 39%, draw 22%, Leon 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/22/39) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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