Marumo Gallants 1-3 Mamelodi Sundowns — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 19 Feb 2025

📅19/02/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
6.35
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
47%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.68
Over 2.5
37%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.4
No
60%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
15%
4.06
6+ Goals
9%
20.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.58 — our 35% vs market 31.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
30%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
13%
+12.5pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.5pp
47%
Away Win
64%
-17.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
38%
+2.4pp
60%
BTTS No
62%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marumo Gallants EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 69%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -12%
0.57/2.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/0.76
-56% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +43%
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
192 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 415 · 80%
8.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
14.7 Crosses 13.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marumo Gallants
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.20 xG 2.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
308 Passes 451
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants 0-2 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFLK
24.09.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 4-1 HT 2-0 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants GAFPSL
06.05.2023 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants 0-2 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
02.03.2023 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants 1-3 HT 1-2 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAF8K
19.10.2022 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 HT 1-0 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants GAFPSL
28.05.2022 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 HT 1-0 Marumo Gallants Marumo Gallants GAF8K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marumo Gallants
1-3
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
1.03 xG 1.46
32% Ball Possession 68%
11 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 9
0 Corners 6
205 Passes 536
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 36
14 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Marumo Gallants vs Mamelodi Sundowns
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns saw off Marumo Gallants 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Marumo Gallants had 32% of the ball to Mamelodi Sundowns's 68%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 1.03 to 1.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Marumo Gallants and 2.33 for Mamelodi Sundowns.

What was the final score of Marumo Gallants vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Marumo Gallants 1-3 Mamelodi Sundowns in the South Afrika - Premier League on 19/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marumo Gallants vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Marumo Gallants 25%, draw 28%, Mamelodi Sundowns 47%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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