Atlas 0-4 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Feb 2025

Atlas
0-4 HT 0-2
Necaxa
📅19/02/2025 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Atlas vs Necaxa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
32%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.13
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.37
6+ Goals
10%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 28% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
36%
+5.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
32%
Away Win
37%
-4.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.9pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlas v Necaxa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 40%
-4% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.24/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.18
-13% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +31%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
325 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
19.2 Crosses 19.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Atlas vs Necaxa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Necaxa
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.14 xG 0.90
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
304 Passes 287
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
15.01.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 2-1 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
11.11.2023 Atlas Atlas 0-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
22.04.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-3 HT 0-3 Atlas Atlas MEK
02.10.2022 Atlas Atlas 1-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
08.04.2022 Atlas Atlas 2-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK

Atlas 0-4 Necaxa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
0-4
AWAY Necaxa
0.53 xG 2.41
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 9
8 Corners 3
250 Passes 276
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa swept aside Atlas 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Atlas at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Atlas had 50% of the ball to Necaxa's 50%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.53 to 2.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlas had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atlas and 0.67 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Necaxa?

Atlas 0-4 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 19/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlas win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atlas 41%, draw 27%, Necaxa 32%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Atlas), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atlas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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